On the Method of Zadig: Essay #1 from "Science and Hebrew Tradition" — Page 12

预测能力，即前瞻性预言的能力，通常被认为是自然科学的一大特权。

The power of prediction, of prospective prophecy, is that which is commonly regarded as the great prerogative of physical science.

确实，有一个令人惊叹的事实：人们可以走进一家书店，花很少的钱买到一本《航海历书》，这本书能预测木星的某颗卫星在六个月后所处的精确位置；

And truly it is a wonderful fact that one can go into a shop and buy for a small price a book, the "Nautical Almanac," which will foretell the exact position to be occupied by one of Jupiter's moons six months hence;

不仅如此，如果有必要的话，皇家天文学家甚至能为我们提供同样准确无误的预测，适用于1980年或2980年。

nay, more, that, if it were worth while, the Astronomer-Royal could furnish us with as infallible a prediction applicable to 1980 or 2980.

但天文学在回溯性预言方面同样令人瞩目。

But astronomy is not less remarkable for its power of retrospective prophecy.

泰勒斯是希腊最古老的哲学家，其生卒年代不详，但据说他在公元前600年左右活跃于世，据称他曾预言了一次日食，那次日食发生在他那个时代米底人与吕底亚人交战期间。

Thales, oldest of Greek philosophers, the dates of whose birth and death are uncertain, but who flourished about 600 B.C., is said to have foretold an eclipse of the sun which took place in his time during a battle between the Medes and the Lydians.

乔治·艾里爵士撰写了一篇极具学术价值且引人入胜的论文，在文中他证明了这样一次日食确实在公元前585年5月28日下午出现于吕底亚上空。

Sir George Airy has written a very learned and interesting memoir in which he proves that such an eclipse was visible in Lydia on the afternoon of the 28th of May in the year 585 B.C.

没有人怀疑，在皇家天文学家所提到的那一天、那一时刻，吕底亚的人们目睹了太阳的表面被完全遮蔽。

No one doubts that, on the day and at the hour mentioned by the Astronomer-Royal, the people of Lydia saw the face of the sun totally obscured.

然而，尽管我们完全相信这一回溯性预言，它却无法得到验证。

But, though we implicitly believe this retrospective prophecy, it is incapable of verification.

由于完全缺乏历史记录，甚至无法设想任何直接查明泰勒斯所预言的日食是否真的发生过的方法。

In the total absence of historical records, it is impossible even to conceive any means of ascertaining directly whether the eclipse of Thales happened or not.